A Big Win for New Mexico

We did it! The New Mexico legislature passed HB 41, the Clean Transportation Fuel Standard in February, and Governor Lujan Grisham has now signed it into law. The signing ceremony was the culmination of so much work over the past four years, and a ringing testament to strong leadership, both from the Governor and the NM Environmental Department, and in the legislature. As the photos attest, women were at the center of it all.

There’s so much to reflect on in the aftermath. Some key things went our way this year. We and our allies also pulled out all the stops leading up to and during the session to give the bill the best possible chance to pass.

We had the most diverse group of stakeholders to date in New Mexico—from environmental advocates to oil majors, tribal groups, the chamber of commerce, public utilities, health advocates, and of course, broad clean fuels industry. Supporters repeatedly showed up in force to advocate for the bill, in person, virtually, and in writing.

We garnered a lot of media attention. No less than six op-eds were published, from perspectives representing the many reasons to support a clean fuel standard. Of course, the LCFC and Board member Adelante Consulting directly made the case for the across-the-board benefits (also published here). And critically, bill sponsor Rep. Kristina Ortez highlighted the value of fuel market competition.

From a campaign perspective, making the case for fuel market competition was a signature achievement of the NM effort this year. It is the first time that any legislative campaign has successfully defused the oft-repeated-but-never-actually-demonstrated claim that clean fuel standard policies raise gas prices. Real-world data contradicts that claim. And that’s not even the best part: Thanks to market competition resulting from the policy, clean fuels are often cheaper than their petroleum counterparts.

We at the Low Carbon Fuels Coalition will continue to publicize the merits of creating competition for gasoline and diesel. Too many campaigns are stymied by unfounded scare tactics in the absence of a counter narrative based on the facts. But in the meantime, we are basking in the win, and looking forward to participating in the NM rulemaking.

Frum Article Blaming Ethanol for Putin’s Actions in Ukraine is Bad Analysis & Historically Inaccurate

David Frum gets a lot wrong in his recent article blaming the ethanol industry for empowering Putin. The gist of the case is that the 2005 Energy Policy Act and the follow-up 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act distorted the geopolitical agriculture landscape (pun intended) by initially subsidizing, and for a longer-term mandating, the use of ethanol in gasoline in the U.S., which was ultimately instrumental in making Russia the European and global menace it is today. The path to that conclusion is highly selective. And the oft-disproven-but-never-dead implied policy solution is “drill, baby drill.”

For audacious selectivity, it’s hard to beat Frum’s indictment of ‘$8 billion in annual revenues’ for the world’s largest biofuel company before the pandemic. That number doesn’t even crack the top 50 in pre-Covid oil and gas, a sector which nonetheless heavily benefits from subsidies and tax carve outs.

The main arguments focus on recurring but oft refuted themes of ‘food versus fuel’ doctrine. To the claim that biofuel production imperils global food supplies, independent research says otherwise. Wholly attributing the shifts in U.S. agriculture production to ethanol policy conveniently ignores both economic forces in general and various subsidies which also influence the sector in the U.S. and worldwide. Perhaps most egregious is misunderstanding that high-protein animal feed is actually a valuable coproduct of ethanol production: “[by eliminating ethanol]…more corn would be available for animal feed rather than burned up as automobile fuel…”

On the political front, neither the fundamental consequences of oil dependence in transportation, nor the most effective policies to liberate us from them — for instance, Clean Fuel Standards — are inherently partisan. Some combination of recurring oil crises, kowtowing to despots, and economic devastation have affected every U.S. presidential administration for more than 50 years. And every initiative to date has been woefully insufficient to the challenge of breaking this cycle. That is not a party line; it’s a fact.

Notwithstanding Frum’s selective and politically calculated references to a mass of unnamed policies begun by the Carter administration and a single supportive 2007 campaign statement made by candidate Obama of corn-lovin’ Illinois, the market-distorting ‘widening and deepening in 2005 and 2007’ were in fact the aforementioned bills signed into law by the W. Bush administration for which Frum was a speechwriter. For those of us who ultimately prefer market competition to monopolies, ethanol’s 10% U.S. market share remains the only meaningful dent in oil’s overwhelming dominance in transportation. Policy credit should be given where credit is due.

That’s not to argue for the current approach. Rather than more drilling or new mandates, we need a genuine all-the-above strategy to permanently deprive despots and dictators like Putin of their power over our economy and our security. We don’t need government picking winners and losers. A technology neutral and market-based Clean Fuel Standard can diversify the fuels we use and the resources used to produce them. Clean Fuel Standards also happen to be the most cost-effective transportation policy to address our other major global challenge — climate change. They also reduce other harmful emissions that affect human health, provide market competition by breaking oil’s virtual monopoly, open the door to cheaper fuels to bring down the cost of driving, and insulate our economy from the gyrations of crude oil prices. That counts as a win on all fronts.

UPDATE FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR GRAHAM NOYES AND POLICY DIRECTOR ROBIN VERCRUSE ON NEW MEXICO LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD ACT

New Mexico’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Act (SB 14) Failed to Pass by a Single Vote

On February 17, 2022, the New Mexico House of Representatives failed to pass the Clean Fuel Standard Act due to a 33–33 tie vote at 3am, just hours before the legislative session expired. The deciding issue was fuel prices, specifically the minority leader’s repeated, baseless claims leading up to the vote that the bill would raise gasoline prices. With no Republican support from the outset and two absent Democrats, enough rural district Democrats were swayed to vote against the bill on the issue. Keep in mind, New Mexico is the #2 oil and gas producing state in the country and those special interests have powerful allies in both political parties.

Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham championed the bill as a tool to transform New Mexico’s energy economy into a low carbon future. Passage of the bill was a top priority of the Low Carbon Fuels Coalition. The bill’s near passage is indicative of the tremendous momentum of Clean Fuel Standards. After all, in the previous legislative session in New Mexico, the LCFS did not even make it to a floor vote. While this setback was heartbreaking, it was inspiring to build a strong and vibrant coalition and come within inches of victory.

The bill would have established a low-carbon fuel standard with the goal of incrementally reducing the carbon intensity (CI) of the state’s transportation fuels by a minimum of 20% by 2030, and by a minimum of 30% by 2040, as compared to a 2018 baseline. Regulated producers and importers would have met annual their obligations by exceeding the standard to earn credits, or by purchasing credits from clean fuel producers for those companies that do not meet the standard.

The Low Carbon Fuels Coalition (LCFC) partnered with Adelante Consulting to develop, fund and execute out the New Mexico campaign through the formation of the New Mexico Clean Fuels Coalition (NMCFC). The comprehensive effort included public polling, PR and communications, fact sheets and other informational materials, a website and social media advertising, economic research and analysis, lobbying, multiple rounds of industry support letters, legislative outreach, and successful engagement that facilitated strong support from the major environmental NGOs in the state. The NMCFC gained and sustained broad industry support inside and outside of New Mexico throughout the campaign, with the notable exception of the agriculture/ranching/dairy sectors that declined to support and were often in opposition.

In a short 30-day legislative session we came within a single vote of establishing a Clean Fuel Standard in the second-largest oil and gas state in the country, at a time of serious headwinds with the false but oft-repeated gas price concern. The gasoline price issue is a recurring theme which the LCFC is in the process of addressing, by finalizing respected third-party economic analysis and outreach materials to bring into future campaigns.

We salute co-chair Amy Brown and Virginia Smith for their leadership, the entire Adelante team for their work, the extremely dedicated and talented lobbyist Amy Miller, the NMCFC Steering Committee, Carroll Strategies for their PR and advertising efforts, and all of our members and allies who engaged in this hard-fought bill.

Rest assured that passage of a CFS in New Mexico remains a top priority for the LCFC!